Chickpea (Desi Chana) Prices Ease on Australian Imports, Upside Seen Before New Harvest

Australian desi chickpeas have already arrived in Mumbai, and further arrivals are expected next month as well. Due to this, Rajasthani chickpeas and spot market prices are under pressure, with Australian chickpeas being sold at lower rates. However, the upcoming domestic crop has been badly affected by late October rains similar to the damage seen in peas. In this situation, there is a strong possibility that desi chickpea prices may start rising again in the new year, even before the arrival of the new crop. We believe that continuous imports of Australian chickpeas at lower prices have pushed desi black chickpea prices sharply down, causing heavy losses to traders. Despite this, desi chickpeas at current price levels should be held, as they are likely to yield profits again in the future. It is worth noting that farmers report that in peas, after harvesting pods, they are left with only about 30% of their invested capital. A similar situation is developing in desi chickpeas. Sowing of desi chickpeas takes place in October in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, and up to 10–12 November in Rajasthan. This sowing too suffered heavy damage due to late October rains, but traders are largely ignoring this factor because of continuous arrivals of Australian chickpeas. Australian chickpeas have been arriving since October–November shipments. The stock that has landed in Mumbai has traded around ₹5,250–5,260 per quintal. After adding expenses of about ₹270, the landed cost for dal mills comes to ₹5,540–5,550. In the spot market, the same material is selling at ₹5,550–5,560 for January–February. As a result, Rajasthani chickpeas have stabilized around ₹5,600–5,625 per quintal. This is significantly lower compared to three months ago, when prices had touched ₹6,400 per quintal at Lawrence Road. Currently, traders engaged in speculative trading as well as dal millers are buying chickpeas from Mumbai and are also quoting forward deals for January–February shipments at ₹5,100–5,125 per quintal from Mumbai. After adding expenses of ₹270, the landed cost comes to around ₹5,375–5,400, and payment is not required immediately. This is why speculative traders are purchasing forward contracts. However, it is important to note that January–February shipment chickpeas will arrive in March–April, by which time the domestic crop will also start arriving. Due to this, forward buying for those months has reduced. On one hand, forward deals are declining, and on the other hand, arrivals are gradually increasing. This creates a situation where the current crop’s true condition is yet to be fully reflected in prices. When the reality of crop damage becomes evident, desi chickpeas could again offer good returns. Not only desi chickpeas, but kabuli chickpeas have also been affected by the late October rains. At present, there is a lack of buying interest in the markets, and fear of Australian supplies is prevailing everywhere. Pea prices have already risen by ₹8 per kg from lower levels, and there is a strong possibility of a further ₹8–10 per kg increase. Rajasthani chickpeas appear relatively better, but according to farmers in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, there has been significant crop damage across all three states. January–February is a crucial period for desi chickpeas, and future price trends will depend largely on weather conditions. Given the current sluggish market sentiment, buyers are hardly visible, and prices may fall another ₹50–75. However, at these lower levels, trading and accumulation are advisable.

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