Over the past 10 days, basmati rice prices have declined by ₹5-7 per kilogram. However, this comes after a strong rally of ₹30-35 per kilogram, so the current dip is being viewed not as a sign of a weak market but as a technical correction from overbought levels. Looking at specific varieties, 1509 Sella rice, which had dropped to around ₹53 per kilogram during the season, rose sharply to ₹85-86 per kilogram before easing back to ₹79-80 per kilogram. Similarly, 1718 Sella rice has declined from ₹87-87.5 to around ₹83 per kilogram. Meanwhile, 1401 Steam rice, which had increased from ₹68 during the season to ₹98-102 per kilogram, is now stabilizing at ₹92-93 per kilogram. The primary reason for this decline is reduced export demand at higher price levels, along with ongoing global uncertainties. On the supply side, however, conditions remain tight. Basmati production in the country is estimated to be down by around 40-42% this year. Rainfall during October-November disrupted harvesting, impacting both yield and quality. Arrivals of paddy in mandis have nearly come to an end, and rice mills are reportedly holding stocks that are lower than consumption requirements. In regions such as Rampur, Tanda, Dohri, and parts of western Uttar Pradesh, stocks of Turi and basmati paddy are limited. Similarly, in major processing hubs across Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh such as Karnal, Taraori, Pehowa, Amritsar, and Jandiala Guru paddy supplies have largely dried up. On the export front, shipments for the next 7-8 weeks are already booked, while the arrival of the new crop is still about two months away. This gap has resulted in limited fresh supply entering the pipeline, keeping physical market availability tight. At the same time, exporters are exercising caution in procurement due to geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States, as well as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This has created temporary pressure on the market. However, underlying demand has not disappeared, and once global conditions stabilize, pending demand could return quickly. At current levels, there appears to be no strong fundamental reason for sustained weakness in the market, as stocks are limited and fresh supply is not expected immediately. As a result, buying interest at lower price levels remains firm. According to Mandi Market Media, the target for 1121 Steam rice continues to be ₹12,000 per quintal. Market participants believe that once tensions between Iran and the United States ease and the Hormuz route resumes normal operations, prices could move upward again rapidly.