The sowing of wheat in India’s key wheat-producing states—Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan has encountered significant challenges this season, raising concerns about reduced yields and overall production. These states play a vital role in the country's wheat supply, contributing substantially to the central pool. However, the delayed sowing process has created doubts about meeting expected production targets. Key Factors Contributing to Delayed Sowing and Potential Decline in Wheat Production: Delayed Paddy Harvesting: In both Punjab and Haryana, late harvesting of the paddy crops has delayed the sowing of wheat. The narrow window between the harvest of Kharif crops and the sowing of Rabi crops has been a major hurdle. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the optimal sowing period for wheat in Punjab had already passed by November 20. Fertilizer Shortages: A shortage of DAP (diammonium phosphate) fertilizer, essential for wheat sowing, has hindered timely planting in these regions, exacerbating the delay. High Temperatures: Unseasonably high temperatures during the sowing period have reduced soil moisture, especially in Punjab, making it difficult for farmers to properly prepare the land for sowing. Impact on Sowing Area: In Punjab, wheat sowing is expected to decline by 18-20% compared to last year. However, in Rajasthan, while sowing was also delayed, there is a slight increase in the wheat sowing area due to favorable factors such as sufficient moisture from prolonged monsoon rains and cooler night temperatures. Market : The overall wheat production in India is expected to decline, with estimates suggesting domestic output could fall to around 100 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season. This reduction in supply is likely to keep wheat prices elevated, with prices staying above the government's minimum support price during the harvesting and Rabi crop preparation periods. While this could improve farmer incomes, the reduced supply may also lead to limited wheat stocks from both government and private sources. Conclusion: The delayed sowing, coupled with high temperatures, fertilizer shortages, and late paddy harvesting, has created a challenging environment for wheat farming in these crucial states. Although farmers in some areas, particularly in Rajasthan, are hopeful for a moderate increase in sowing area, the overall wheat production for the upcoming season is expected to decrease, which may impact supply and maintain higher wheat prices.