The government has set a wheat procurement target of 31 million tonnes (MT) for the 2025-26 rabi marketing season (April-June), marking a 26% increase from the 26.6 MT procured in the 2024-25 season. The food ministry, after meeting with state food secretaries, stated that the procurement targets were determined after reviewing factors like weather forecasts, production estimates, and the preparedness of states for procurement operations. The key states for wheat procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) include Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state procurement corporations handling the process. Wheat procurement operations officially begin on April 1, though arrivals in mandis (wholesale markets) generally start by mid-March. Following a record procurement of 43.3 MT in 2021-22, government wheat purchases dropped to a low of 18.8 MT in 2022-23 due to reduced production. However, procurement rebounded by 40% to 26.2 MT in 2023-24. FCI currently supplies about 18.4 MT of wheat annually for social welfare schemes, and any additional procurement this season will help the agency conduct open market sales (OMS) to curb price surges and maintain buffer stocks. As of now, FCI holds 14.41 MT of wheat in stock, well above the required buffer stock of 7.46 MT as of April 1. To date, FCI has sold around 2 MT of wheat through weekly open market auctions this fiscal year. The agriculture ministry estimates India’s wheat output for the 2023-24 crop year (July-June) at 113.29 MT. The production estimate for 2024-25 will be released soon. Trade sources expect mandi prices to hover around ₹2,600 per quintal when the new crop arrives next month, as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have announced a bonus of ₹125 per quintal over the Centre's MSP of ₹2,425 per quintal for the 2024-25 rabi season.