While mustard farmers have enjoyed favorable prices over the past month, the soybean market remains under pressure, with no strong signs of recovery yet for growers and traders. The key factors influencing soybean prices and assess when market conditions might improve. Arrivals and Consumption Trends Soybean arrivals and crushing have declined by approximately 9% till June compared to last year, signaling tightening supply. At the same time, direct consumption has increased by 7.5%, suggesting steady end-user demand. Stock levels have dropped significantly. Compared to 36 lakh tonnes held last year, only 18 lakh tonnes of soybean stock remain this year � a sharp 50% decline. Government agencies like NAFED and NCCF currently hold about 12 lakh tonnes, bringing total available stock to a level that roughly 16% lower than the previous year � a potentially bullish signal. Soymeal: Weak Export Demand Soymeal, a key soybean byproduct, continues to drag market sentiment. Between October and June, exports fell by 12%, slipping from 17 lakh tonnes to 15 lakh tonnes. Domestic consumption rose marginally by 1.5%, but demand from the animal feed sector dropped by 8%, adding pressure on processors. Sowing Area and Price Movement Reports indicate a minor reduction in soybean acreage, but the decline is too small to influence market direction significantly in the short term. On the price front, markets remained largely flat. At Kirti Plant, soybean held steady at ₹4,600/quintal, while in Madhya Pradesh, plant-level prices ranged from ₹4,350 to ₹4,450/quintal. International Cues: Soy Oil Strengthens Global soy oil prices have shown strength. At Kandla Port, rates rose by ₹20 per 10 kg over the past week, reaching ₹1,185 per 10 kg, supported by international cues. On the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade), September soy oil contracts gained 0.43 cents/pound, closing at 54.42 cents. This rally is largely driven by expectations around higher biodiesel blending mandates in the U.S., with projections that nearly 50% of American soy oil production may go toward biofuel. This has attracted fund activity, although soybean and soymeal futures remain soft.