Overview The Government of India recently floated wheat tenders under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) across several northern states to manage domestic supply and stabilize prices. However, the response from private flour mills and traders remained subdued, as cheaper wheat was readily available in the open market. This limited offtake suggests that a major price rally in the coming months is unlikely. Production and Procurement Trends India’s wheat production has remained strong this year, with arrivals in major mandis continuing uninterrupted for the past eight months. The government’s procurement during the current marketing year has reached around 30 million tonnes, significantly higher than the 26.6 million tonnes procured last year, 18.7 million tonnes in 2022–23, and 26.2 million tonnes in 2023–24. Higher procurement reflects both increased acreage and favorable weather conditions, as farmers expanded wheat cultivation following three consecutive years of firm prices. Consequently, India’s total wheat production has risen by 5 million tonnes, reaching an estimated 115.3 million tonnes this year. This bumper harvest has maintained heavy arrivals in mandis, resulting in continuous supply pressure. With both government and private storage levels remaining high, the market is well supplied, and demand from roller flour mills and atta traders is being adequately met. Market Behavior and Pricing Last year, wheat prices had touched a peak of ₹3,350–3,400 per quintal, prompting stockists in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Rajasthan to purchase large quantities early in the season. As the new crop has been in the market for nearly five months, these stocks are now being offloaded, putting additional downward pressure on prices. Currently, mill and chakki delivery rates are ruling around ₹2,800–2,820 per quintal, varying slightly by quality. In the latest OMSS tender, the government’s reserve price was fixed at ₹2,550 per quintal. Bids were reported in the range of ₹2,670–2,690 per quintal in Delhi and ₹2,600–2,620 per quintal in Haryana. In Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, most mills abstained from tender participation, as wheat was available in the open market at ₹2,650–2,660 per quintal. In Punjab, only about 60% of the mills procured wheat, leaving significant quantities unsold. Outlook Wheat sowing for the upcoming season is currently in full swing, and the new crop is expected to reach markets by April 2026, leaving a consumption gap of only three months. Given the comfortable supply position and limited demand growth, the likelihood of a major upward movement in prices appears low. If the government’s tender sales remain limited in the coming weeks, prices may firm up marginally to around ₹2,900 per quintal. Otherwise, wheat is expected to trade in a stable range of ₹2,800–2,850 per quintal until the arrival of the new crop.