Market analysts indicate that the near-term domestic outlook remains bearish, as fresh-season arrivals and relatively better production are likely to keep prices under pressure. Occasional short-covering may lead to minor recoveries, but the overall trend is expected to remain downward. Global black pepper production is expected to decline year-on-year, mainly due to larger-than-expected crop losses in Vietnam. According to trade estimates, global output for the current season is projected at around 520,000 tonnes, down from approximately 550,000 tonnes in the previous season. Analysts note that the extent of damage in Vietnam appears more severe than initially estimated, putting pressure on global supply despite the arrival of new crops. In the international market, Vietnamese black pepper was trading steady to slightly higher at VND 150,000–152,000 per kg. However, with the new crop expected next month and weak global market signals, the scope for further price upside appears limited. Traders and processors are maintaining a cautious buying approach, while export demand is likely to remain subdued until after the New Year period. Domestic Prices (INR per Quintal) Kochi: • Ungarbled: 69,500 • Garbled: 71,500 • 500 gl: 68,500 Karnataka: • Kushalnagar: 69,300 – 71,700 • Chikmagalur: 69,100 – 71,700 FOB Quotes (USD per Metric Tonne) • Brazil ASTA: 6,150 • Vietnam 500 gl: 6,500 • Vietnam 550 gl: 6,700 • Indonesia ASTA: 6,746 • Malaysia: 9,000 ringgit