All varieties of basmati rice witnessed a sharp decline in prices during the first half of the current month due to uncertainty surrounding Iran. Prices fell by ₹800–900 per quintal from higher levels. However, buying by exporters at lower levels and the rising cost of paddy have led to a recovery of about ₹500 within a week. After a brief consolidation, the market is now expected to gain a further ₹600–700. Severe floods and heavy rainfall during July–August caused damage to around 24–25% of the paddy crop in Punjab, while Haryana reportedly suffered about 10% crop damage. As a result, prices of all paddy varieties, including 1509 and 1401, had risen sharply from October onwards. However, in the first half of January, the fall in Iran’s currency and rising geopolitical risks led to a sharp correction. Over the last 10 days, the price of 1401 steam rice fell from ₹8,600 to ₹7,800 per quintal, but after forming a bottom, it recovered to ₹8,200 today. Rice mills are facing a shortage of both paddy and rice, and exporters have a large number of pending contracts for other countries. This has created expectations that prices may rise to ₹9,000 per quintal. Similarly, 1509 sela rice declined from ₹6,800 to ₹6,300 per quintal, but recovered to ₹6,850 today and was quoted at ₹6,900 by evening. Prices of 1718 rice had also dropped from ₹6,900 to ₹6,500 per quintal, but strong buying by major exporters at lower levels over the past 4–5 days pushed prices sharply higher, with trades reported at ₹7,100 per quintal. At current rates, milling paddy costs about ₹300 per quintal more than prevailing rice prices. Considering this, the market is expected to move gradually toward ₹9,000 per quintal. In Jandiala Guru, Amritsar, and Tarn Taran mandis, prices of 1718 paddy have risen to ₹3,600–3,700 per quintal. In Tarawadi, Kaithal, Tohana, Safidon, and Cheeka mandis, paddy is being quoted between ₹3,500–3,570 per quintal depending on moisture and grain length. In Uttar Pradesh mandis such as Dadri, Ujhani, Bahjoi, Jahangirabad, and Bareilly, prices are currently around ₹3,400–3,500 per quintal. Over the past two to three years, paddy purchased at high prices during the season often got stuck in mills, leading to trading losses. However, this year, in view of export commitments and strong milling demand, the market is showing signs of sustained, intermittent upward momentum.