The Government of India continues to actively manage domestic wheat availability through Minimum Support Price (MSP) procurement and market intervention measures. For the 2025–26 financial year, the MSP for wheat has been fixed at ₹2,425 per quintal, with a procurement target of around 30 million tonnes, underscoring the government’s intent to maintain price stability and adequate buffer stocks. Price Trends and Market Levels Wheat prices have recently witnessed a mild uptick, contrary to expectations of a seasonal decline. However, prices are still expected to remain largely range-bound. Current spot prices are hovering near ₹2,807 per quintal. On the upside, strong resistance is observed around ₹2,900 per quintal, while on the downside, prices may correct towards ₹2,650 per quintal. Domestic Supply Situation According to Mumbai-based commodity analyst, India is entering FY 2026 with a clear surplus supply scenario. Wheat acreage for the 2025–26 rabi season is estimated at 33.4 million hectares, reflecting a year-on-year increase of nearly 2%. This expansion has been supported by favorable soil moisture conditions and normal winter rainfall across key producing regions such as Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. The acreage expansion follows a robust wheat harvest in 2024–25, with production estimated at approximately 111.75 million tonnes, significantly higher than India’s annual consumption requirement of 105–108 million tonnes. Consequently, a structural supply surplus has already emerged even before the arrival of the new crop. Procurement and Policy Interventions On the procurement front, purchases by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies have substantially increased government-held stocks, which are currently well above statutory buffer norms. Additionally, the resumption of e-auctions under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS)—through which wheat is sold to bulk buyers at administered prices—has played a key role in containing open market prices. OMSS supplies have kept mandi prices largely within the ₹2,450–₹2,600 per quintal range, effectively capping any sustained price recovery despite MSP support. Trade Policy Environment Trade policy developments in January were incremental rather than transformational. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has allowed limited exports of wheat flour and related products under HS Code 1101, capped at 500,000 tonnes through phased monthly quotas. However, exports of wheat grain remain prohibited, and import duties continue at elevated levels of around 40%. This policy stance insulates the domestic market from global price volatility while tightly regulating export flows, clearly reflecting the government’s priority of domestic price stability over aggressive trade participation. Global Market Influence Global fundamentals are also contributing to subdued price sentiment. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its estimate for global wheat production in 2025–26 to around 842 million tonnes, with ending stocks projected at approximately 278 million tonnes, among the highest levels seen in recent years. Although demand from Middle East and North Africa (MENA) importers remains steady, abundant global supplies continue to exert downward pressure on international prices.