In the past week, the cumin market has once again demonstrated its strength. The primary reason for this was farmers holding back supplies after recent price declines, which limited arrivals in the mandis. In Unjha, arrivals are currently around 35-40 thousand bags, compared to 50-55 thousand bags at the same time last year. Similarly, arrivals in Rajasthan mandis remained limited, keeping the market tight. On price levels, on Saturday, medium-quality cumin in Unjha was traded at ₹19,500 per quintal, while the best quality fetched ₹22,200. In Jodhpur, prices were ₹23,000, in Merta ₹22,500, Nagaur ₹21,500, and Nokha ₹21,000 per quintal. Internationally, in Mumbai, medium-quality cumin reached ₹25,500 and the best quality went up to ₹29,500. In Delhi, machine-cut cumin traded at ₹26,000, while the best quality reached ₹32,000 per quintal. Overall, prices rose by around ₹8-10 per kilogram during the week, reflecting strong local demand and limited supply. However, the futures market showed slight weakness, with NCDEX April contracts closing at ₹22,150 (-5) and May at ₹22,345 (-45). This year, cumin has been sown on 11.18 lakh hectares, down from 11.71 lakh hectares last year. Adverse weather conditions are expected to reduce production to 88-90 lakh bags, compared to 97-98 lakh bags last year. Gujarat’s production is estimated at 32-34 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may produce 54-55 lakh bags. Current arrivals stand at 60-65 thousand bags in Gujarat and 22-25 thousand bags in Rajasthan, though delays in new arrivals may create supply pressure in April. Exports have shown some weakness, with 156,671 tons exported during April–December 2025, down 12% from 178,847 tons the previous year. This decline is mainly due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Once conditions improve, export demand is expected to recover, providing fresh support to the market. Overall, the fundamentals remain strong, suggesting potential long-term strength in cumin prices, although rising geopolitical tensions may lead to limited short-term volatility.