Chickpea (chana) prices have remained confined within a narrow band for the past eight months, failing to breach ₹6000 on the higher side or slip below ₹5500. Market activity has largely been range-bound during this period. In the previous week, prices gained ₹75, supported by active procurement from stockists and subdued selling by farmers. However, expectations of ample supply capped further upside, and in Delhi, prices opened ₹50 lower today. As the harvesting season approaches its peak, supply pressure is expected to intensify in the coming days. Current mandi prices are averaging ₹5200–5400 per quintal, significantly below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of ₹5875. This gap has led many farmers to hold back their produce, resulting in reduced arrivals in open markets. Arrivals had already been affected in recent weeks due to rainfall and hailstorms in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Additionally, market closures during festivals and at the end of March further slowed supply. With mandis set to reopen around April 3–4, arrivals are likely to pick up pace. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, ongoing government procurement has discouraged farmers from selling in the open market. Similarly, in Rajasthan, expectations of procurement beginning from April 1 have prompted farmers to retain their stock. Domestic carryover stocks of desi chana are nearly depleted, prompting stockists to remain active in the market. On Saturday, prices were reported at ₹5700 in Indore, Latur, and Akola, ₹5750 in Katni, ₹5500 in Bikaner, while Australian chana was traded at ₹5500 at Mundra port. Globally, supply remains robust. Stocks of Australian chana at Mundra and Kandla ports are estimated at 3.14–3.27 lakh tonnes, the highest level seen in the past six months. Continuous arrivals of vessels, including MV Ocean Ariel (34,000 tonnes) and MV Rubinai (36,800 tonnes), are further strengthening the supply pipeline. Import trends show a notable shift, with volumes declining by nearly 50%—from 5.03 lakh tonnes in 2025 to around 2.52 lakh tonnes in 2026—providing support to domestic prices. On the production front, private estimates place output at around 93 lakh tonnes, marking an 18% increase, while government projections are higher at 117.92 lakh tonnes, reflecting a 6.10% rise. Production is expected to increase in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, although a slight decline is anticipated in Maharashtra. Demand conditions remain firm, driven in part by heightened global tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which have boosted both retail and wholesale consumption of pulses. Overall, the combination of a significant gap between MSP and market prices, minimal carryover stock, active government procurement, and steady demand is providing a floor to the market, limiting the likelihood of a sharp decline. At the same time, pressure from port inventories and the arrival of the new crop continues to restrain prices. Market analysts suggest that current price levels are near the lower end of the range, and any further decline of ₹50–100 could present a buying opportunity. In the short term, prices may rise by ₹200–300 due to stockist demand and procurement support, while a fall below ₹5550 in the Delhi market appears unlikely. The 10% import duty is set to expire on March 31. An extension could lend additional support to prices. Conversely, if prices rise sharply, the government may consider importing cheaper peas to stabilize the market.